Cardano Price Analysis
Cardano ADA overview:
Cardano launched in 2017 and currently has a market capitalisation of over $15 billion. ADA has a maximum supply of 45 billion with a circulating supply of 34 billion, meaning there are still 9 billion tokens to be released into circulation. The higher the percentage of created tokens against the max supply, the better for price action. If a project has only released 10% of its tokens and still has 90% of tokens to be released, supply will be greater at some stage than demand, and consequently, price will decrease. In Cardano’s instance, it is close to 70% divested, and because demand is high for this project, the remaining 25%-30% shouldn’t significantly impact price action.
Cardano currently sits 9th in the top 10 crypto list.
Chart Analysis
The above chart is the monthly ADA chart since the 2017/2018 launch.
Note the distribution and accumulation phase from late 2018 - March 2020 [covid 19 flash crash]. During the first half of the distribution and accumulation phase, the ADA price was $0.02, and by March 2020, the ADA price was $0.17, which is a 9x. By the end of the bull run in 2021, ADA reached $3.61, which is an increase of 12,000%!
Note the significant decrease in volume from 2018 - 2021 and 2021 - 2023. This could mean many long-term holders are still waiting for significant long-term gains, having expected prices to reach higher levels during the last bull run.
The first distribution and accumulation phase lasted roughly 517 days from the first low in 2019 to the low in 2020. If we chart roughly 500 days from the low in June 2023 500 days takes us to November 2024. Meaning after the Bitcoin halving in April 2024, Bitcoin could continue to lead the upward trend, but then the Alt-coins can take the baton and charge the next leg of the bull market from 2024 into 2025.
Future Price Consideration:
From the low of 2020 to the high of 2021 the last bull market gains were 120X. Meaning 5 ADA at $0.017 would have been worth £1,021.19 by 2021. If we account for diminishing returns and project ADA to produce a 40X gain from the low of September 2023 at a price of $0.25 that will price ADA at a peak of $8’s.
Calculation for investing $1, $10, $100 or $1,000 when ADA is valued at $0.25
1/0.25 = 4ADA
10/0.25 = 40ADA
100/0.25 = 400ADA
1000/0.25 = 4000ADA.
Based on the above projections, if ADA reaches $8’s these bags could be worth:
4x$8 = $32. Just from investing $1.
40x$8 = $320. Just from investing $10.
400x$8 = £3,200. From investing $100.
4000x$8 = $32,000. From investing $1,000.