BTC price analysis

Let’s take a look at the monthly and weekly charts for BTC/USD price action.

BTC monthly chart

This is not my original chart from a previous newsletter but it is very similar. I have been expecting the BTC low to be between $14k - $16k and the current cycle low is $15,500 (ish). The monthly RSI is indecisive sitting at 51.29. Volume is in a downward trend.

The monthly chart is pointing to a downturn and as long as the price of BTC holds above $20k then it could make a larger move to the upside. However, given the macro climate I think we could see it touch down to $18k (ish) at some point over the summer. I do not think BTC will break lower than $13,400 again unlike some uber bears still calling for BTC to drop below $10k.

BTC/USD weekly chart.

According to the BTC weekly chart if BTC remains above $25,400 then it remains relatively strong but if it breaks below $25k then look out for touching down to $18-19k. Remember this could take a matter of weeks or months - summer could be the next low, between June - August, possibly.

The RSI has not been above 70.00 since April 2021 and recently touched off it in April 2023. Although the RSI seems to be making a move upward, overall it is signalling a downturn. Interestingly June / July 2022 was a low point for the RSI in 2022.

If BTC does break to the upside it will most likely be short lived and there will most likely be strong resistance around $32k (ish) before a deeper move to the downside.