Macro Market overview
Although the above chart is from June 2022 it is good to see that our macro targets have been in play. BTC price is current above $20k therefore according to the chart above we want to continue to see it hold above $19k - $21k to show increasing strength and a base to build from.
Data source: TradingView. Bitcoin daily chart. Click the chart to see a larger view.
The market has been fairly uneventful in recent weeks but there has still been some good accumulation opportunities for BTC.
BTC has potential had a small breakout to the upside but I’m not getting my hopes up. I expect there to be a long time left before risk on assets such as cryptos start to move to new all time highs. BTC will meet resistance around $23k and $25k even if it doesn't break out further and there is significant resistance at $28k meaning there is much work to be done. Each resistance point provides an opportunity for weak hands to sell attempting to re-buy at lower levels (shorting the market).
The chart above shows that BTC built a base around the $20k mark in December 2020 - January 2021 which should continue to act as good support even if the market may wick just below these prices.
There is lots of noise around finding the bottom of the market with many investors wanting to buy the bottom however, it is impossible to know when the market has bottomed. Any price close to or under $20k is a good entry point or DCA pick for BTC. If the market does dip lower it could dip toward $14k but it could just grind sideways for a number of months before moving to the upside. If you bought BTC at above $50k then anything under $25k will bring your average cost down significantly. As investors we don’t want to get caught waiting for the “bottom” that never arrives causing us to miss great entry points.
Market Summary & Take aways
BTC is showing signs of a move to the upside but this could be short lived
The bear market is not over even if BTC does explore higher prices in the $20,000s.
Be prepared for BTC to potentially move to the downside in August / September.
BTC is building strong support around the early $20,000s which will continue to act as either strong support or strong resistance if there is a move to the downside.